PUTIN’S CYBERWAR Summary x Events over the past two years, not least the annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Syria, have demonstrated that Russia has returned to an aggressive foreign policy. The capabilities that Russia has displayed over this period have caught the West off guard. x Russia’s distinctive approach to war in Ukraine has highlighted the Kremlin’s capacity for information warfare. There is nothing fundamentally new about the techniques and methods employed by Russia, even if the technologies that enable them are. This is the case with cyberwarfare, where the development of the Internet has facilitated broader and much longer-term information warfare aims. x Over the past decade, Russia has demonstrated both a greater capacity of its cyberwarfare capabilities and an increasing willingness to use them. Russia has employed cyberwarfare for a variety of purposes – including to dismiss and distort information; to disorient nation- states; and, to distract from, or support, conventional military activities. Russia, or hackers close to the Russian state, have attacked nation-states, industrial plants, financial institutions, government departments, media outlets, and other Western targets. x One specific military development is particularly worrisome. Russia is the only country to date to have combined cyberwarfare with conventional warfare. In its war with Georgia, in 2008, Russia’s ground offensives were accompanied by widespread cyberattacks targeting government websites. In its war with Ukraine, since 2014, Russia’s hybrid warfare has included cyberattacks not only on government and media websites, but also on energy infrastructure. x This trend with Russia’s cyberwarfare, as with its conventional warfare, is only likely to continue – the more Russia develops its capabilities, the more aggressive and confident it will become. In contrast to Russia’s neighbours, who must consider and plan for the threat of military attack and invasion by Russia, Western countries must plan for the threat of Moscow’s ongoing subversion and destabilisation. x The West should take a tougher approach to Russia’s cyberwarfare; investing resources in intelligence gathering, addressing weaknesses that facilitate the Kremlin’s activities, and financing an education programme for Internet security. 1

Foreign Policy

The Kremlin's Fingerprint?