TOWARDS A COHERENT WESTERN POLICY ON THE SYRIAN WAR Nevertheless, it is also the case that even with the Russian intervention, it is unlikely that the rebellion will be completely destroyed. Putin’s announcement of the withdrawal of Russian forces makes such an outcome still less likely.18 The essential problem of lack of sufficient manpower for holding reconquered areas remains for the regime. Thirdly, the most successful western action militarily in the Syrian context to date has been the pairing of western air power with the Kurdish YPG. This has liberated more than 1,000 square kilometres of Syrian territory from IS. The SDF (of which the YPG is the key element) is now located 30km north of the Islamic State’s de facto capital in Raqqa city. Its latest victory against IS, the liberation of the town of Shaddadi, was achieved with a force consisting of 60 percent Kurds and 40 percent Arabs, according to a statement by special US presidential envoy to the coalition 19 against Islamic State, Brett McGurk. It is perhaps worth mentioning that my last visit to Syria, in late December, brought me to the first SDF lines before Shaddadi. I examined the possibility of the upcoming assault on the town in a number of articles. I also conducted extensive interviews with both Kurdish and Arab elements in this force. These included meetings with the Syriac Military Union (a Christian force aligned with the SDF), with Jaysh al-Sanadid (a militia organised by the Shammar tribe) and with the Shams al-Shamal group, which emerged from the non-jihadi rebel groups in northern Syria.20 My impression was of a disciplined and well-organised force. In many visits to Syria in the course of the war, I have ‘embedded’ with a variety of non-government forces, from the Tawhid Brigade in Aleppo at the height of the fighting in August 2012 to the Kurdish YPG. It is my contention that the SDF, and particularly the YPG core of it, represents the most disciplined and organised force that I have encountered. The alliance with the Kurds has proven problematic because of Kurdish determination to unite the Kobani and Jazeera cantons with Afrin further west, and Turkish objection to this. Nevertheless, east of the Euphrates, the SDF continues to advance, gradually cutting off Raqqa city from other holdings of IS. Given all this, coherent western policy regarding Syria should be based on the following lines: Syria is currently effectively partitioned. Since the West does not wish to go to war with Russia to destroy the Assad regime, this fact must be acknowledged. The only effective and reliable ground partner the West has in the fight against IS is the SDF. The war against IS must therefore be prosecuted at a tempo sufficient to ensure the reconquest of IS- controlled areas by the SDF. This would be achieved with US air cover, but a minimal commitment 18 Patrick Wintour and Shaun Walker, ‘Vladimir Putin orders Russian forces to begin withdrawal from Syria’, Guardian, 15 March 2016, available at: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/vladimir- putin-orders-withdrawal-russian-troops-syria, last visited: 29 March 2016. 19 Robin Wright, ‘Is the Islamic State Hurting? The President’s point man on ISIS speaks out’, New Yorker, 3 March 2016, available at: http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/is-the-islamic-state-hurting-the- presidents-point-man-on-isis-speaks-out, last visited: 29 March 2016. 20 Jonathan Spyer, ‘SDF plays crucial role in Syrian Civil War’, Jane’s Intelligence Review, January 2016,available at: http://www.janes360.com/images/assets/333/57333/SDF_plays_central_role_in_Syrian_civil_war__1_.pdf, last visited: 29 March 2016. 12